LYC 0.16% $6.17 lynas rare earths limited

Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-15

  1. 7,521 Posts.
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    The stock more than tippled in a year. A year that saw covid. A year that saw the first yearly loss in 3 years. Overall a vey bad year in general. All this and you do not think positions should be reexamined????

    I think your lack of facts other than historical ones and closing with hahaha. says a lot about your total investment style. Not saying you should agree with those of us that think direction has a high possibility of down in next six months. BUT to Not try and understand just leaves you way out on a limb. If you understand but do not believe at least if things change you might recognize the change. If not when stock falls you will be sitting there saying some version of the evil empire did it.

    If you want respect. Use some facts and thought out assumptions to make a guess as to 2022 2024 and 2026 earnings will be and what the stock price will be with those earnings. Surly you must have some ideas if your so bullish on the stock. You do not have to use my years just pick a few that you are basing your "Buy" on. When all else is said and done SP comes down to current earnings and what people think they will be in future. Also the risk in future guesses.

    Just for record if If Lynas achieves a 10.5 KT of run rate by late 2024. NdPr prices are not lower than 10% of todays Prices and Markets continue to support High PEs than Lynas stock price to day is justified and AUD 12.00 in 2025 is very possible. For me the biggest risk is the market continuing to support high PEs. Second is NdPr production being much over 9 KT on a yearly average. They will make 10.5 run rate but will not be able to keep that up for a year. It's just like they have never made the NEXT run rate for more than a month. NDPR production 2018 5,444 and 2019 5898. Now apply those percentages to 10.5 in your calculations. Plants need maintance and sometimes are hit with unexpected disruptions if you think 10.5 means yearly production you just don't understand. Prices are a wild card. I would not argue with someone that said over 800 RMB for NdPr in 2025. I also would not argue with under 400 RMB. Lynas is not the biggest supplier of REEO but they are a major supplier. if you look at NEXT as each phase came on line products in that phase had a price drop. If you look when Lynas had production problems the prices rose. Exception was during the shut down when covid eliminated demand. If you are thinking that Lynas can go from current production rates to nearly 10 KT without an impact on prices I would like some explanation. Maybe EVs will do it but I always try to error on the low side it protects my investment. I love being surprised on the up side I hate down side surprises.





 
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Last
$6.17
Change
0.010(0.16%)
Mkt cap ! $5.767B
Open High Low Value Volume
$6.18 $6.22 $6.14 $10.91M 1.767M

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
2 12550 $6.16
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
$6.18 124 1
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Last trade - 16.10pm 15/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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