great analysis Schmidlap. Something went wrong today, but not with the price, but rather the volume of trading (sell) (2.005 m).
While I don't know what's going on inside that little PACT office, but Visy is down, Amcor was reducing in last couple of days. The way I read on AFR was this whole packaging industry was owned by Amcor, then sold some to Visy, and Pact engineered some of underperformed companies out from Visy. So, the way I look at this stock's today, I looked to Amcor, then to Visy, and then to Pact, they are all down. I scratched my head and thought there is absolutely either some big fingers (institutional/powerful group of traders) wanted to short down this stock to reconsolidate with their daily trading activities and also to reacquire what Ruffy took out from their portfolios that was put on daily trading. Or, some competitors wanted to pass on the pain to Pact or something is negative around the world (which today is for the market due to pain from New York and Asia's sell off). Or someone inside the company is selling out to quit the job (Sanjay's) or Ruffy's or institutional. Who could own and capable of manipulate such volumes and wash trading on market anyways?
I am saying 2 millions shares are awkward, I think the price is a lot undervalued and being controlled by traders nowadays, like you said. I will hold till it gets better price ($6- $10/share). I know we are suckers right now, but I don't feel that bad because if I look at bitcoin at its highest $70k USD/coin to its current price, the dow jones index, and bunch of stock like Amcor, Visy, Pact, Pro-Pac from its mighty height, I tended to think due to inflation and interest rate hikes from around the globe, people wanted a secured cash and avoid the volatile stocks (growth stock, cyclical stock, crypto) and people's concept were just being transferred from 'buy a dip' into 'sell the rip' because according to afr, to not fight the Fed (US Federal Banks) hxxps://www.copyright link/markets/equity-markets/it-s-time-to-adopt-a-sell-the-rip-mindset-20220912-p5bhdu
I will hold, because let us look at a plastic, yeah I know it's boring compared to high tech stocks, but it is something, and virtually if you have something other than an emptied mind with no savings, even plastic will have its price. It just I think Ruffy and Sanjay kept on blah blah blah about recycling plants stuffs. My though is that, listen men, this whole PACT was engineered out from Visy which pretty much are bunches of plastic packaging companies. Where Ruffy and Sanjay went wrong were to bleed the cash cow businesses to invest into organic food, China, Jalco, Loscam and recycling plants.
My belief is learned from old hotcopper members that you got the feed the cow to make cash cow business first ok? I am talking about 133 sites across the globes, because institutional before arriving at recycling plants and China, all they ever thought back then was about margin profitability and to protect their own and their customers' interest. This is where it becomes a mess.
Ruffy and Sanjay kept on betting about recycling plants, but I argued that first of all, it has to be about Pact's profitability to satisfy the margin requirements from insto end, then to the dividend, then that idiot recycling plants got to fit into the packaging business. But, they turned around and said, look contract price cannot be passed on, and instead of using recycling materials to corporate into the main businesses, more like they wanted to use the recyclable materials to become a main business. I may be wrong, but I think there are conflicts where you use the recyclable material into main business like everyone reads it here, compared to what they said, hey forget our main business, but to use the recyclable materials, buy synergy and make something and sell to woolies. Then they hoped that by next year, materials cost will come down, and look like their recycling plants and rubbish bins makers Sulo are the stars of the show.
That's why according to the latest news from AFR, Macquaries and other institutional demanded that, look, first of all, this whole thing needs to be profited and to save the company's balance sheet or else the deal for cheaper interest rate is off the table. Second of all, their recycling plants needed to work ,not like the water desalination plants back then, and not to expect the cheaper material cost to come, even if it is, profitability and dividend and long term trend of prosperity needed to be on the news and financial data numbers to restore investor's confidence.
We will see in upcoming days when we have AGM every year. I will hold, but I felt like Sanjay and Ruffy are really confused, they think they are the bosses (which they are) with what we expected coming out from them. Oh well, this year, hopefully under new management, they need to turn around, change their attitudes, cultures, profitability, margin, dividend and financial numbers. We welcome Pact's new management team to our bigger Hotcopper's family. :O))
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