Bad move. 55 to 65 cps down the track. Harvest Lane and smart...

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MrAu

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09/12/22

12:05

Post #: 65239983
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Originally posted by cyprus: ↑

Two thirds the way there. A really well executed takeover. Pretty much an inside job with the director of the bidder, Andrea Betti, also being appointed a director of the target on 21 November when the bidder was at one-third acceptances and declaring unconditional - and the existing directors having previously welcomed the bid with open arms and liquidating their holdings.

No white knight emerging - a bit late now with two-thirds now in the bag and owned by the bidder apart from some payments outstanding.

As well as an off-market takeover the supplementary bidder statement makes it also an on-market takeover with the bidder able to buy shares on-market also up to the 45 cents bid price.

This is breaking new ground for me. Have not seen a takeover like this before where off-market bidder also buying (and able to buy) on-market.

Harvest Lane have a blocking stake re compulsory acquisition and could hold out till the end and sit there with their 10.03% stake - but will they? Harvest Lane seem to be just that. A M&A arbitrage harvester feeding on M&A activity. They are not there to hold out beyond the end date and be caught with a minority holding, getting subsequently squeezed out with dilution.

Really hard to see anyone getting more than 45 cents, including Harvest Lane, but you never know. If there is a white knight, Kedalion will either have to pay everyone some more money to up their bid or they will profit on their two-thirds shareholding above the current 45 cents if they fold.

Have sold out on-market for one of my holdings, as 45 cents now with a small amount of brokerage is better than waiting a month to get paid but will sit out a little longer on the other holding and play the spectator sport - unfortunately - as my view is that shareholders are short-changed on value - not their fault, but directors had let CNR run out of cash at only $1.1m in the kitty at 30 September and saying all is okay as they are just doing internal mining studies.

AP, take a bow.

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Bad move. 55 to 65 cps down the track. Harvest Lane and smart retail holders know this. And Hawkes Point? Too smart to sell into this low ball offer.

my opinion

CNR Price at posting: 45.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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