Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-2

there it is, the confirmation

AF & Wyloo take a 19.9% stake in MCR.
a $150M stake here and another $20M added to just below t/o level.

BHP control 100% of MCR offtake, tolling, transport, royalties & ALL revenue of MCR.
MCR is a BHP lapdog in effect.

MCR has NO MILL of its own & massive capex, already burnt through $200M easy with staff camps needed and more drilling while BHPs much hyped production increases are dead in the water and its burgeoning offtake obligations cannot be met.

Both BHP & AF have made terrible blunders regarding these Ni wars imho.

AFs move leaves him with 2 options - flip to BHP for 25% hoping BHP will bid (no chance) or bid for 100% & breach the BHP offtake deal and spend $1B cash on the remaining 80% & his own mill in kambalda (NUTS).

We saw in AGO WSA PAN POS, that AF did not launch a bid & exceed the 20% limit and in AGO WSA POS he flipped his stakes for a pathetic 25% margin, so he was a trader, LOL.
Lets not mention the ANL fiasco which went into liquidation to 0% losing $2B.

That leaves only option 1 so the same tactic as at AGO WSA POS.
AF is bluffing BHP imho & provoking another Ni war with them.
BHP Kambalda is the best and nearest option for MCR and thats why they have offtaken with BHP for 2 decades now.

AF is a BHP hostile competitor and started a Ni war over Noront with BHP in a bidding frenzy for that frozen cashburning black hole in the arctic with no roads for 350km & no mine or mill.
The animosity between BHP & AF go back to the FMG startup days in 2003 & the bidding war over Noront last year in which AF won the poison chalice for $450M cash & a bill for $1B future capex. LOL.

AFs Nickel empire dreams lay in tatters and this is a trading move imho like the other ones before it.
AF may be using MCR as a toy to flip for a 25% margin in his Ni war with BHP.

Cant see this bluff working however. AF may be left stranded in this BHP lapdog.