Perennial have been long term holders. This latest trade reduces...

Perennial have been long term holders. This latest trade reduces their ownership by 15.5% to 6.4%. Alliance is still one of the top ten holdings (3rd) in their Smaller Companies Trust and now represents 4.7% of that portfolio. Does this signal a change in their conviction towards this stock and will they be reducing their holdings further?

Today's share price action is on average volumes with largest trade $29,500. This tells me the average retail holder is exiting along with @Xandrax.
Alliance is not the same company it was 5 years ago. It has not paid a dividend in 4 years and and has taken on significant debtload to expand its fleet. It is unlikely to pay any dividend in the foreseeable future and a capital raise may be needed to fund recent aircraft purchases.

Many will blame Qantas (and ACCC), but it takes two to tango. Management were quick to accept their offer, and have put a lot of eggs (and aircraft) into the wet lease arrangements with Qantas.

I am having difficulty making a case for continuiung to hold. I held Management in high regard once, but they have not been transparent in recent times. Lee Schofields sudden resignation, breaching banking covenants, and reporting statutory losses all surprised the market. The one page announcement on a significant increase in their fleet without providing any detail has left shareholders second guessing. Similarly we are still waiting on its 'next steps' following the one paragraph announcement on the ACCC decision.

Management have guided for profit before tax of between $50 million to $55 million. They are still in the process of completing fleet expansion/s and continuing to incur associated operating and capital expense costs. There are also the costs to be borne under the failed scheme of arrangement with Qantas. It will be interesting to see if they can meet guidance when they report in August. Market sentiment is indicating risks are to the downside.