Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-8

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slammer81

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26/05/23

11:31

Post #: 67978368
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Originally posted by mondyinvest: ↑

Well... hard to know. There's a few different angles to take with their positioning here. For reference, here's a couple of comments I made last month on these threads:

Separately, I think it's good news Mercuria have doubled down for obvious reasons - but one has to be careful reading too much into what knowledge/foresight they have of either the JRV business or the underlying commodity. These are the same guys who back in November pitched $16.1M into the 42c capital raise, a holding that is now worth only $3.8M at current prices.

As to their intentions:

It did just occur to me that Mercuria may be continuing to buy around the 10c range though - will be keenly watching for further notices to come through. They're currently at 8.81%, if they go beyond 10% I'd be starting to wonder if it was an attempt to get a controlling stake, but I'm not yet sure why they'd do this (or if there were better avenues available to them to do so). I just remember Bryce's famous line about working at Glencore: "we'd nail 'em to the wall and take the keys" and a similar comment he made when the Mercuria deal was announced and he did a Crux interview: "we're going into this with our eyes open". Commodity giants are great backers but they're also not there to fluff your pillow at night.

I can't pretend to know what they're doing but I see two simple options:

They've decided to back the business and are buying at levels they see as advantageous long term. This will be positive for Jervois because they're currently a creditor to the tune of US$70M (plus steep interim interest payments) so the likelihood is that they'll defer or extend payment terms etc, to give the business some much-needed breathing space
They're running out of patience and are looking to take a controlling stake, to acquire some assets on the cheap.

This is, obviously, all just conjecture. But they're up to something. Being a commodity-trading giant, whatever they're doing, it's unlikely to be charitable.

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Having been to the AGM and mixing with fellow holders, it's clarified for me what is likely occurring here. GLTAH
JRV Price at posting: 9.4¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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