I've been hard on management since July last year for the...

I've been hard on management since July last year for the realities the above posts outlined. After 10 years of no mining permits and stalled mining sector, it's unwise to come out Dec quarter 2021 and say they are very confident of approvals in Jan 22 regardless that someone in government gave them some warm assurances.

To then come out every single quarterly and half since then telling the market very confident of a deal next few months is deceptive and unsupportable. Once the party you have been negotiating with for years has continued to renege or simply keep sliding on warm fuzzy negotiations anything they say is clearly unreliable and not to be sold to investors with unsupportable confidence imo. Especially if they were following the politics and time-lines of negotiating the new mining code, which HC has for 12 months on public info, so surely management was with much better connections in Madagascar. In the context of wanting to nail down the new mining code and tax/royalty distribution into law first, not very surprising that things continue to drag yeah?

Accurate and timely communication is not their style if Tanzania and KE exploration is anything to go by. To be fair, it;s the same style of 'sell the dream and hold the share price up until BS becomes reality' all ASX juniors follow. Trouble is, share price always finds it's fair value, just that those with better or inside knowledge get the chance to get in/out first before the price gets there. Works both ways, bit like the 50% walk up in AZS before yesterday's surprise announcement of huge lithium diamond drill results that were dead obvious in core for 6 weeks before lab got around to assaying them. If you get the tip it's a great system (and we've had tips in our lives) if you don;t it sucks...

That's the game, the gamble, and we choose to play anyway. Personally, I think BSE was sold down to Toliara delays and commensurate sovereign risk elevation, Tanzania failure, KE failure value a while ago (good guess by Regal or better connections?). Subject to Dune Nth getting on top of recent slimes/o'size issues, then hitting planned margins, BSE price doesn;t seem to have too much downside risk left. Not that it won;t get cheaper, or management won;t make bad decisions and screw value, just that I like the risk-reward set-up at these levels.

My view is that Madagascar sovereign risk isn;t much higher than Oz (eg NT issues, red, green tape, Qld super-royalty theft from coal miners etc), that they are moving towards a sensible and broadly supported mining code, and pressure has become irresistible to allow mining to help pay the bills, provide jobs and desperately needed economic activity. After a >10 year wait, current raft of mining code legislative activity, elections later this year, RIO on the cusp of agreeing to a new deal on Fort Dauphin min sand operation etc Toliara's time is at hand. It's just out of management's hands and always has been...

GLTAH