As I said on my last post Hancock know very well that LTR's true value for today is the double of what Hancock paid to buy in that 12.4% stake. It's around $6. (We have done a lots of calculation to see these numbers before)
So, Hancock paid close to $800m for 12.4% atm. And surely they are buying more atm. $800m for 12.4% is a lot of money. If Hancock wants the whole lot they will have to pay much more than that of course.
Btw, both ALB and Hancock are not that smart IMO, as they haven't seen the potential of LTR so far as we have seen and hold. So I'm not worrying that they will outsmart us and get our shares at a cheap price.
As a lots of good points made here by @dynofish and others. We are in the prime position as LTR holders although it is not clear that what's going to happen next.
- As I said before TG has seen all this coming and he made his moves. He must be well aware that Hancock was buying like crazy and reached to 4.9% in the registry just before ALB's $3 bid.
- ALB need LTR's high grade with very low impurities ore very much, it's technically the only ore very close to Greenbushes ore. ALB needs KV project more than anyone.
- I'm not underestimating that ALB can't match Hancock's bid if Hancock makes any. ALB is in the US market and there is huge money which will flow to ALB if it needs more. As you can see MIN hasn't got any trouble to get US1.1b (AU$1.7b) just recently.
- Wodgina (ALB/MIN) is already producing and selling. As you know it's in the iron country; Pilbara. Low grade and high impurities, etc. The highest they can make there is 5.5% spod concentrate at very high cost which is AU$950/t. That should even be higher than that as they only talk the linear increase. When you compare it with LTR's AU$651/t cost, you can see it's 50% higher than LTR. That mean they all know how valuable is LTR's KV project is.
- ALB needs KV project for making lithium hydroxide in Kemerton. Wodgina's ore is not suitable for that. They know they will have a lot of technical issues there with Wodginas ore, or they are already having it. Not sure of what they are doing atm.
- I don't know how Hancock has bought 12.4% stake by paying huge money for that small stake. Did they make a DD of their own? It's not clear. So I can't understand how Hancock would offer billions of dollars against ALB's bid!
- I don't think MIN is doing anything together with Hancock other than advising Hancock for technical issues of lithium and KV Project.
- I don't think MIN has got US1.1b to do anything related with KV project together with Hancock. MIN has a lots of things to do with the money as MIN has scratched itself out to too many things atm. I was even to buy som MIN shares for having dividend in the future but with it's this situation I will not buy any MIN shares because I see it's being too risky for me now.
I am patiently and confidently waiting for the things to unfold. I believe ALB can easily go up to $3.50 if Hancock makes a move. Then Hancock have to match that offer.
If Hancock become a hurdle and be in the position of blocking ALB's takeover then Hancock will be a stakeholder and LTR will go to production while we are holding.
I think we will be the winners (and we already are) at the end.
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Last
79.8¢ |
Change
-0.003(0.31%) |
Mkt cap ! $1.952B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
79.5¢ | 81.5¢ | 79.0¢ | $4.109M | 5.134M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
13 | 173081 | 79.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
80.0¢ | 66982 | 11 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
16 | 133294 | 0.795 |
19 | 372538 | 0.790 |
23 | 333844 | 0.785 |
34 | 473560 | 0.780 |
8 | 101250 | 0.775 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.800 | 301525 | 36 |
0.805 | 340632 | 18 |
0.810 | 244142 | 12 |
0.815 | 263636 | 14 |
0.820 | 184727 | 12 |
Last trade - 12.01pm 15/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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