Initially i planed to buy a big parcel if sp drop to 12.5c from the average of 16.5c-17c on the day the company announced the USD $15mil has been deposited into the drawdown facility but i still have not topped up over the few days yet because i do not understand how Quantum can genuinely fund this AUD $465mil (USD $300mil) without charging any interest or gaining anything significant from this off-take+funding deal.
This is my rough maths:
- It takes 1.5-2 years to build the mine, the processing plant, commissioning of the plant (trial run of the plant).
- Then it probably take another 1-2 years to get the operation achieving full nameplate production target.
- At least another 8-10 years for Quantum to receive enough gold deliveries which is to be paid off by deduction from the USD $300mil "interest-free" funding package.
- So, that means Quantum can only fully recoup its USD $300mil funding package after 12 years to 14 years (at least).
- During those 12-14 years, Quantum has to pay its bank around 10%-12% interest rate (business loan rate) on its USD $300mil per year.
- Forget about compound interest, let's just apply simple interest rate of 10%-12% and not compound it, then Quantum still has to pay its bank about USD $30mil-$36mil per year and total of USD $360mil-$400mil during the first 12 years (again I only apply simple interest, not compound interest which is more realistic and more correct than simple interest).
So, basically Quantum is taking enormous risk to fund $465mil (USD $300mil) to this project to get it into production and pay its bank interest rate of 10%-12% per year for over 12 years (at least) before it can fully recoup its USD $300mil and pay its bank around USD $400mil = AUD $625mil in interest (over 12 years).
So, how can Quantum benefit from this deal? 10% discount on spot price is just standard discount, nothing special about it.
And on top of that, if for whatever reason the project cannot go into production (or production get halted), then Quantum stands to lose all (AUD $465mil initial funding package + potential AUD $625mil interest payment expenses for the first 12 years = potential loss of close to AUD $1.1bil).
There are so many potential risks involved in bringing a project into production and operation over decades. Environmental risk, mining permit risk, inflationary risk, commodity risk (gold price), operational risk, geology risk, sovereign risk, geopolitical risk...
It does not make any sense to me.
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