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Outlook remains firmly positive

With the expected recovery in chip supply in mid-2022, we forecast a positive outlook for PGM prices except for palladium, which is likely to suffer from loss of market share because it is used mainly in gasoline ICEs and in diesel to a lesser extent. However, this decline in sales could in part be offset by higher PGM loadings due to stricter emissions regulations, which are likely to be tightened further.

The outlook for platinum, iridium and ruthenium over the next two decades is positive. These have exclusive catalytic properties in the generation of hydrogen within the fuel cell battery. We see a balanced market for platinum in the short term followed by large deficits from the late 2020s onwards due to growing demand from the developing hydrogen economy. For palladium, we see growing surpluses and for rhodium large deficits to 2028 followed by surpluses thereafter. The basket price of the metals for South African producers is forecast to average $2,520/oz between 2022 and 2030, 2.5x the prices achieved before 2019. Winners: South African PGM producers like Sibanye Stillwater, Sylvania Platinum and Tharisa. Losers: Northern Hemisphere PGM producers like Nornikel, Stillwater mine and Impala Canada.

https://www.edisongroup.com/thematic/the-pgm-markets-outlook-and-price-forecasts/