Even though I am a big advocate of Mesoblast, you're overly...

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col69

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18/05/24

12:49

Post #: 73892607
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Originally posted by Hawk70 ↑

$2.20 on resubmission confirmation.

$6.50 if 6 week review confirmed

$10 on FDA approval of Childrens Remestemcel-L

Adult approval to follow in 18 months?

A gradual rise as the market realises the sheer $$$ value of treatments for Congestive Cardiac Failure with a significant reduction in mortality, and improved heart function. $500,000 per treatment. Very promising.

A one shot injection that provides a 3yr pain-free and opioid free of 27%. A 12 month pain-free result of 69% (Phase II trial results) - 13.2 million Americans report lower back pain requiring medication. $30,000 per injection.

Get 1 drug through and safety and efficacy have a precedent set, with trial results to meet endpoints the only outstanding factor for FDA approval.

And yes, this is very simplified!

But what price 'significant improvement' in traumatic spinal cord separation?

If GG is a knight in shining armour (maybe, maybe not) and has stopped at 17% to ensure a SOA blocking vote with SI and his 8% then the threat of a takeover is significantly reduced.

If people want shares, they will have to pay up for them.

After adult Remestemcel-L approval, and with endpoints met on the Stage III trials for heart failure and back pain, is $100 unreasonable?

No.

If Grünenthal are willing to pay $1 billion for 10% of South American and European back pain rights - then $100 is very conservative.

It all starts here gentlemen (I'm feeling very verbose and chipper today) - lets crack on with a 6 week review from FDA and hit $6.50 by August.

Failure is not an option.

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Even though I am a big advocate of Mesoblast, you're overly optimistic IMO with your estimates of our share price at each of those stages you reference..... realistically I think it will be more like $1.50, $2.20 and maybe $4 upon FDA approval (of course assuming we don't receive another CRL).

The only way this reaches $10 with so many SOI now IMO is if Mesoblast make a submission for CHF Accelerated Approval and the FDA accept same for assessment..... the $10 is also heavily contingent on the Remestemcel-L approval happening in the interim..... I hope you're right with your estimates @Hawk70 but I am just not seeing it

GLTAH

MSB Price at posting: $1.09 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
38 Upvote

4 Great analysis

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