OPT 1.23% 41.0¢ opthea limited

Ann: Change in substantial holding, page-22

  1. 1,026 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 231
    Market or Entitlement? Here is ChatGPT answer based on $400k spend, current price of 0.345 and the entitlement offer 0.40 with the 1:3 option (Let's call it OPTOB-2026). The theory is that 40cents - 34.5 current price = 5.5 cents*3 as each option is "valued" by the rational market at 16.5cents


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    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6284/6284973-e610d7f8c77b0b493fe2e5f7e6809b0f.jpghttps://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6284/6284975-cc05eaca1b01f88e4ee60bd4f2331037.jpg

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6284/6284979-a31f5ab87cbb4e241f136140525cc408.jpg

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    So yes, it just depends on the value you ascribe to the OPTOB-2026 option. How much is the option to buy a $1 share in the future worth today? 15 cents or more? Share price between 0 cents and $3.6.

    As for where OPT will end up if both Phase 3 trials are successful, I would like to imagine a 10X return. I also dream. That being said, I believe OPT is a 3X in the speculative lead-up to the first Phase 3 result. Yes, unexpected issues may occur during the trial as it is, after all, a double-blind medical trial, so it is not without risks.

    However, a 3X reward vs. low risk is based on human speculative behaviors.
    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/6285/6285005-8a086e3d2de6a7b95a6458270e83eb2b.jpg


    Salt, grain take of course.
    Last edited by FreeFromStyle: 03/07/24
 
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