I anticipate an increase in valuation on speculation to $1.5-$2 billion leading up to the initial Phase 3 readout in Q2 2025. The potential for further significant gains exists if both trials are successful and if manufacturing, commercialization, and distribution partnerships are secured.
I wouldn't bet against the best interests of Regal. The drop from the mid-60s to the high-40s just before the capital raising (CR) could be seen as insider knowledge playing out. It's in Regal's interest as an accumulator to obtain the most stock for the least amount of money. However, Regal does not appear to be engaging in a pump-and-dump strategy. They seem to be taking a long-term position on Opthea (OPT), which suggests a vote of confidence in the science and its outcomes. That said, I won’t be betting against Regal if I observe significant volume selling given Regal of itself represents as a total less than all of retail
Each share currently represents 66 cents of shareholder equity, yet the stock is trading at a significant discount to this intrinsic value, approximately 38 cents. This disparity highlights a potential undervaluation, presenting an attractive buying opportunity for investors. It appears Regal has effectively facilitated a transfer of invested value from early investors to those participating in the capital raising, which included both Regal and institutional investors, with retail investors contributing about 18%.
To paraphrase George Orwell's Animal Farm with OPT and Regal
"All animals shareholders are equal, but some animals shareholders are more equal than others."
(20min delay)