Allan Gray may have been hoping for a merger with Accolade but...

Allan Gray may have been hoping for a merger with Accolade but now that Accolade has purchased Pernod Ricards assets a merger is unlikely. Given this, Allan Gray may have lost patience as it's likely to be a slow burn for the recovery.

That said, with the current price at circa 20% of tangible book and less than 50% of liquidation value, this remains a great buy for long term holders. Cycles come and go in the wine industry and with vines being pulled and China tariffs removed, we should see the cycle turn in the next year or two. AVG should also be able to generate some cashflow that could be used to fund a buyback in 6-12 months time. In any case, the chance of this not being materially higher than 16.5c in 12-18 months is low in my view, or we get bought out in the meantime.