I post that on my earlier other posts
but I can repeat them again
not saying it's correct but this is what I analysed.
1. share price was in consolidation mode before Trafigura began selling on 1/8, strangely the average sold price is above the consolidation range
2. PFS released two days after and they stop selling (I suspect it was to wait for the market response to the PFS)
3. but market didn't response well (share price didn't move up) then they back to selling, surprisingly, when they back to selling the sold price is again above the highest price after PFS, what a coincidence.
4. but then the price has only reached 15.5c highest then didn't go up higher, if they want to do the same they could sell at higher price
5. China news was out on 14/8, and the company announcement was out after they stop selling, and the average sold price on last day (16/8) is 15.2c (within the highest price) but market seems to picked up the news so price went above 15.5c, closed at 18c.
6. then official announcement to fire up the price movement
so base on the above observation, if it wasn't because the export control news from China, it will be still traded at 15.5c or lower. imo.
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