The international student business out of China into Australia is running at close to record high levels. For Australia , it's a high value biz with over 80% of Chinese students going to Group of 8 Universities with the most expensive tuition fees. However IDP's share of the Chinese recruitment market is quite small.
IDP is dominant in India, Sri Lanka, Vietnam and Cambodia. Those markets also doing well for Australian Higher Education, but VET (vocational) visa refusals high. IDP primarily focused on HE so it will be less impacted than the market overall. IDP's Australian business should be solid into FY2026.
However recruitment into Canada and the USA will be heavily impacted by a large drop in student demand as well as visa refusals. Both markets looking VERY weak with the stats looking increasingly bad. Both destinations had been growth markets for IDP.
The UK doing ok, with student visa statistics indicating growth into 2026.
Australia is the largest destination for IDP's students, so at least there's a key revenue stream that will be stable into 2026. With two other major destinations rapidly shrinking, overall growth will be tough.
IEL Price at posting:
$3.83 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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