Any reason why you're using a 20% tax rate for the value of the Woodside earn-out? FAR has substantial accumulated losses, my understanding is that gross proceeds from the earnout would be equal to net proceeds.
So more like 79mAUD value for the contingent rights - but obviously that should be discounted to account for risks it doesn't get paid out fully or at all (operational risks on Sangomar, not only oil price risks) and for the time value of the payments.
Using a 50% hair-cut on the full value and considering 5mAUD of unwind costs, I have a fair value of c0.85AUD/share. Very decent upside, and downside is well supported here: the earn-out only expires in 2027, even if oil price drop in the short-term, the value of that long-term option is not 0, and the cash is 43c/share in itself
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