A couple of things:-Upside potential is much more: if the...

A couple of things:

-Upside potential is much more: if the company uses half of their cash balance to buy back shares at, say 80c/share (c30% of shares outstanding) and the contingent rights pay out fully, liquidation value per share would be 1.60AUD/share

-Timing-wise, at current Brent prices and Sangomar development plans, the contingent rights would be fully paid by end 2025. Obviously, it would be clear long before that time that the earn-out will pay fully so pull to realized value will likely have occurred way before end 2025.

-There is also timing optionality: the contingent rights are trading at 20c on the dollar at the moment, you'd think that once Sangomar starts producing (end 2023), Woodside would likely consider buying back the earn-out. At 1AUD/share (c45% upside from here) the contingent rights would be 60c on the dollar.

-The two main risks are the oil price and management spending the cash on a value-destructive deal to keep their salaries going for a few more years. The first point is what it is (but given the cash balance and long maturity of the earn-out, downside is likely well capped). On the second point, given the concentrated nature and profile of the shareholder base, the board would likely face strong opposition and eventual removal should they pursue an outrageous deal.