Didn't realise Boxing Day Sales were still running, nor did I realise they applied to the stock market!
Statistically, SE1 is cheap. The company has forward looking revenue into FY18 of US$7M - $8M (i.e. AUD $9M - $10M which is based off the fact that they forecast USD $6.25M - $7.25M, however then announced the new multi-million dollar deal start of Nov). On a conservative GPM margin of 75% (the company has outlined the fabrication business can generate GPM of 80%+), we can safely assume a EBITDA of 30% could be achieved (not saying we will break-even profit wise until FY19), then we can look at a forward FY18 EBITDA of $3M. Most hardware / software tech plays operate off a EV / EBITDA multiple of 20x+. Let's assume simply operate off a multiple of 15x, then fair value exists at a FD MC of AUD$45M. I.e. FY18 revenue alone suggests fair value resides at 29 cents.
Then if we account for FY19 revenue .. Jesus. Let me put it in perspective: 1) our CEO has performance options that can only be executed on these milestones: EBITDA of $1M, EBITDA of $2M and $50M of annual revenue (management would not force him into these milestones if they didn't see a material pick up in revenue), 2) the Smart Bow Agreement stated that its size was that significant that it represented a multiple of all chips sold by nanotron since inception - well, 950,000 chips have been sold since Nanotron started. If we assume a conservative multiple of 2x, then we are looking at 1,900,000 chips being sold in this agreement alone. I am unaware of the selling price per chip, but could not imagine it being less than AUD $10. As such, based off extremely conservative estimations, we could predict the Smart Bow Agreement to be worth approximately $20M in revenue for Sensera. However, as our (now) non-executive chairman stated, the majority won't roll through until 2019, 3) we won't see material revenue flow to our bottom line for 2 of our 3 cornerstone clients for the fabrication facility until FY19 (as outlined by management).
As such, looking at FY19 revenue together with FY18 revenue, and we can clearly see how cheap Sensera is.
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