I think we're near the bottom, but this hole is a complex one. The hole is also permanent for long term holders for the medium term, given there's 26B shares issued.
Firstly the selling is not stopping. I thought it may be Ares again but I looked up their last Form 604 on 5 Jun 18 (change in substantial holding) and they had 3.37B shares remaining. Using Amibroker I totalled the volume traded on ASX since 5 Jun 18 which is 308 M. This excludes Chi-X so the real total is well higher than 308 M. A one percent change in Ares holding is only 33 M, and they have provided no further notices of substantial holding changes so who knows who's selling. But this is irrelevant compared to the real issues below:
Centerbridge are renown for taking over companies and either keeping them or flipping them. E.g. Google centerbridge and PF Changs. When they bought PF Changs they paid a 30% premium to the share price at the time (2012) and now wish to sell it six years later. Similarly they may takeover BLY and enjoy it's recovery, and by doing so deny long term holders any chance of a decent return.
It's hard to know what plans the big holders have and what will happen. Scenarios in my head are:
- Centerbridge intend to takeover of BLY. If so they will not sell shares now. i.e. why sell now and buy them back later at a premium? If a T/O is on the cards then why is Ares selling now, opposed to getting a premium price later from Centerbridge? Then again all players have their own agenda; Ares may not care about Centerbridges and just want to sell now regardless of anything.
- Centerbridge do not intend to takeover BLY but rather assist in it's recovery. I think this could be the likely outcome because there's every chance Centerbridge do not want to own a drilling company long term. Like mining companies BLY is subject to commodity cycles and this could be a turn-off.
- BLY becomes insolvent and liquidates. Fundamentally BLY is better now than the last few years. With better management, and Centerbridge breathing down their necks at board meetings this is hopefully unlikely.
