There are posters here who only see a good future and others who...

There are posters here who only see a good future and others who see a high cost, poorly run operation heading to administration. I am somewhere in the middle.
Nickel price is the thing. If it stays at these levels then PAN will likely be in administration mid/late 2024. It is a quarter by quarter watching brief for me at the moment. They improved enough last quarter for me still to be here. They have to improve as much again in this quarter to survive. Off to a good start with a shipment away. One more bit of broken plant or a ground fall or a bad cyclone and it is probably over. If they do not increase the cash in the company this quarter then it is over. With a grade of less than 1.5% Ni, everything has to go well. There are no higher grade bits of the orebody to keep them going until nickel prices improve.
Some rough numbers
Nickel price A$28600/t (LME today)
1.2% Ni ore value A$343/t
Recovery 78% (from last quarterly report)
Ignoring the by product Cu, Co.
So rough in ground value of $267/t.
So they need to mine and mill the ore for $260/t or less, everything has to go well to do this.
A few percent improvement in recovery would help a lot but you have to think this is what they are going to get.
IMO all the talk of price premiums for sulphide nickel over laterite nickel is optimistic. Consumers are going to buy the cheapest nickel available.
It is telling that during the consolidation of nickel companies, no one showed interest in PAN. Maybe all the potential buyers think they can get it cheap from administration.
GLTAH