FY24 Guidance of at least $50m npat, gives a 10 month forward pe...

FY24 Guidance of at least $50m npat, gives a 10 month forward pe of 30 at todays closing price of $7.60. Given the north american business grew revenue by 154% in fy23 and now makes up 22% of group revenue, and rising rapidly, that valuation is looking cheap to me.

But if you think that forward pe looks too expensive, well then lets look at the companies guidance at the start of the last 2 financial years and compare it to what they actually delivered.

FY22, $23m guidance, $26m actual, 12% difference
FY23, $33m guidance, $38.5 actual, 22% difference

So lets say in FY24 they beat their guidance by 10% to deliver $55m npat. That reduces the 10 month forward pe down to 27.

Then say, at the start of FY25 they provide guidance based on the 30% CAGR that have achieved over the past decade, giving $71.5m npat guidance. Then say they beat guidance by 10% again, gives $78.6m. That gives a 22 month forward pe of 19.

I would agrue that with the rapid growth we are seeing out of north america, and the large market potential there, a 22 month forward pe of 25 is very reasonable.

That gives a price target of $9.82 to be reached at some point in 2024.

I see the current market concensus is FY25 npat of $59.2m. That is too low. That is likely to adjust upwards over the coming weeks.