The market is clearly expecting Gina's offer to now expire, with the purchasers over the last couple of weeks behind in the 'market price', but I would think they have the Strike offer as a 'backup'. We'll probably see the SP stay around the Strike share price over the next week or 2 with lots more of the 'outstanding' shares taking the Strike offer.
This will leave Gina ~26%, Min about 20% and Strike probably over 40% (in a months time)..
It's been a fun journey the last couple of months, but long term holders were stitched up by management over a year ago by not looking favourably on the first Strike offer of 1.2:1 (or making noises that they could accept with a tiny bit more offered, or an independent expert study or some such..
Of course the future with 3 major players holding over 80% between them will become interesting. Does MIN want to hold as a listed company just to thwart Strike from developing Haber, so they can develop Lockyer Deep without putting downward pressure on gas prices and developing their own fertilizer plant?
What are Gina's intentions? Will she take up the Strike offer then have a go at Strike, or will she negotiate some wicked deal for future gas supply before caving to Strike as part of negotiations..
I'm holding Strike, but sold here last week when the price went back below 40c. I'm assuming nothing happens for a week or 2 and Gina closes her offer which could see the prices of both companies fall. My intention is to plough my profits from here into Strike hopefully at a cheaper price after the takeover battle appears to subside. Good luck out there...
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