Really not sure Gooch is the short answer. A slightly longer answer below.
What I have learnt of recent is that I will not be surprised about how capital raisings are done. Normal times there are normal ways, and i understand this. But right now this is very abnormal.
So for sure there are guys out there who will finance essentially for project control, if they can get it.
But then there are others who just want to make money with moderate risk. This is along the theme that there is a lot of money sitting on the side lines, and believe me there is smart money sitting there now.
What I have been a little interested by of recent is the positioning of some banks. There seems to be "measured" aggression to financing projects of a certain ilk. I sat on a plane next to a big 4 resource sector financier, and was interested to hear his views. It seemed that they believe that they are looking at lets say moderate or less than interesting growth unless they start investing or loaning into projects of a certain risk flavour which is above their norm (shock horror to some).
So I do not know what the commercial key figures on the AMX project are going to be, and how much this will translate or meet banking investment parameters. But this will shape the amount of dilution I would imagine. What I was suggesting before is that the AMX board have a fair amount of experience in this sector and have a fair amount of alignment with shareholders, and I would assume they would like to minimise dilution.
So how much they can do so, is going to depend on the pfs.
So this is what I have been watching for.
If the the pfs is considered to be marginal or has a better chance of being marginal, then I would not expect Taurus (who I suspect strongly knows a lot more than what I do due to numerous site visits, and lets forget the efficient market crap) to be investing in a stock that is going to be (highly) dilutionary? Even for the reasons of averaging down (which I do not believe they would be doing anyhow...essentially throwing good money after bad).
So sorry, my argument is a little circular, but I am suspecting dilution will not be that significant. Why? Because the project is reasonably compact, the grade is above the long term averages for gold deposits, the POG is not going to do down in the time frame of the project ramp up (what it does now is largely irrelevant),I think the scare in met is manageable and probably not going to be that much influence, the power offer they have is interesting, the mining widths are good, the geo-model they have is probably conservative,country risk is not that high (so disocunt factor will not be as high as other countries) etc.
Another way of saying this, is that if the pfs produces a pay back period of 2 years and a high IRR, then what would you do in terms of financing the project yourself. Dilute all your shareholders and yourself, or finance out of debt?
So I am waiting, with an expectation that the financing will not be highly dilutionary. Numbers around this...?
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