Hi 8horse
I usually read your posts with interest, as you often include useful data and commentary. Also, I am a holder and believer in the EV revolution rather than a short seller or down-ramper. I like to read their posts as well, as I can use them to stress-test my own thinking.
I guess in your above post you want to highlight two things.
1.) That there is no 1:1 correlation between director buying and selling and share price movements, and
2.) The fundamentals for AVZ have not changed - and they are fantastic.
Now - and I know your fan base here will most likely hate me for writing this - I think this is a bit unwise.
No one actually believes that there is a 1:1 correlation and when talking about statistical probability of correlation there will always be individual examples that go against the correlation - but that does not disprove anything. Given that any board member is privy to a lot more information than an ordinary shareholder, it is worth taking note when one of them sells a sizable parcel. Of course they can have all sorts of valid reasons wanting to raise some money - tax, divorce, indeed some sell down to improve liquidity. To me first prize is when they actually tell the market why they sold some of their shares (look at last ASX notice of RCR MD sell-down. To me this reflects best practice on disclosure), rather than have rumors of this leak out from brokers who may or may not have vested interests. At the end of the day, if they believe in the business, but choose to sell shares in the business rather than use any other way of raising funds (selling other shares, take on debt, sell an investment property), no matter how you want to spin it, it reflects a lack of faith in the business' future prospects on their part.
I have no doubt whatsoever, that the the Director is aware of the solid "fundamentals" that you highlight. Not only that: He would also be aware of the more likely path some of the strategies the board will follow to take the business forward - something that many of us here on HC can merely speculate about. Again, by you highlighting the great fundamentals, the director's selling only raises more concern rather than providing assurance.
Finally, if I may add an observation of my own, a director selling at 25c and the share price rocketing up 10 cents a few days later to me indicates either potential incompetence of the Director or that even insiders have no idea where the share price is going. I actually give the Director the benefit of doubt for now and note for the record that I believe the latter is the case.
Now I am not going to sell any of my AVZ, though my level of comfort in holding it has decreased somewhat as a result of this insider selling - call that "weak hands" if you must. The other thing that I will think about when reading your popular posts will be the old saying that "The Fat Lady Doth Protest Too Much".
GLTAH & DYOT
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