Building a defensive bull case model for MVF (long term):MVF...

Building a defensive bull case model for MVF (long term):

MVF forecast premium IVF industry growth rate 2%

MVF revenue per cycle growth rate 2%

= 4% organic growth

66% payout ratio at 11 PE

= 8% dividend FF

So that provides for a 12% investor return (without any upside from business margin or PE expansion).

The bear case is the significant market share losses from MVF and VRT over the past couple years so creating another estimate to help model the impact:

MVF sensitivity:

-12% EPS for every -5% loss in market share revenue.

This would mean hypothetically MVF could lose approximately 40% of their market share over the next 10 years and that annual -12% EPS impact would be offset by the +12% investor return factors for an investor breakeven.  IE.  Using these imputs as a model MVF could lose 40% of their market share and investors would still breakeven.