The thing with AKG, is that now ( last half results) International Education accounts for 80% of revenue. Spectra was not international education and was clearly a disaster. However international revenue grew 15% last half and has huge tailwinds, including that international education is Australia's 3rd largest export and has been growing and is predicted to continue to grow at a healthy pace. Additionally Australia's largest immigration stream is sourced though international education. i.e. pay for a course in the right profession and you will have opportunity to apply for residency.
If AKG just stick with their existing schools they have a lot of room for organic growth. By way of example there are around 100 English as a foreign language schools in Sydney so the opportunity for a good operator to take share is huge. Many schools are run very unprofessionally and that is why Navitas, Redhill etc can do so well. Of course AKG and others offer a lot more than just English schools. Despite AKG's awful stuff up with Spectra their International education product is reasonably good and they have continually pushed the ethical approach which in an industry that has a terrible reputation for unethical operators should win out in the long run. I used to run and international education agency so while I dont pretend to know what the future holds I do have experience with the international education industry, and it is very lucrative. It is worth around 32B in Australia at moment. If you look at Navitas, IPD and Redhill for industry trends then AKG can do well if it delivers a good product. Managements historic stuff ups are only concern but I am hoping they have learnt their very costly errors and additionally they mostly have a lot of skin in the game and have been buying shares over last few years.
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