BUD (ASX) Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice

Originally posted by Holdtight: ↑

Medical bills don't wait for 4C. $47k is such a small percentage of his holdings. Waiting for the 4C would be irrelevant. If it goes to 10c the difference is he could sell 500,000 instead of 600,000 to cover the family members medical bills. He holds almost 45m shares outside the escrowed shares. Also, maybe directors cant sell after a 4C!!!! If its a good 4C people would suggest he knew the numbers and waited for that!!.

My take on the quarter is that it wont matter. Its looking in the rear vision mirror from here. The quarters that matter are the next 3-4. Its a very different company now with the lifx revenues, growth path and synergy/ sensors to add to the platform. Based on the current market cap and share price, the stock is valuing ohm and airstream at about 2c and 6c for Lifx.( crazy cheap i believe) I base this off the lifx revenue numbers for the first 1/4. Jan was up 103% on prior Jan, Feb was $2.9m up 97% on previous Feb, and we are told March is up MORE THAN 100% on previous March. Each month is expected to be bigger than the previous ( pattern of past 5 years) So I am guessing the 2019 cy for lifx 1/4ly will be approx $11m-$12m. We also know the first quarter is always the smallest by many multiples. So being on target for $70m in revenue and 1.8b shares on issue bud and using a multiple of 1.5X revenues, $106m of the current $144m is for lifx. The remaining 2c ($36m MC ) is valuing the airstream revenue, ohm revenue and the cash left in the bank.

I am honestly hoping for a upside surprise but I really dont think it matters. The 1.5X revenue for lifx is extremely low. The asx average is 3-4 times. And for stocks growing at 70-100% its many times that multiple.
What will be key for me in the quarterly is how they have reigned in the cash burn from OHM. The product is built. Sales have been slow, so why maintain the same level of spend until it accelerates meaningfully. All IMHO.

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it's actually a large percentage of his holding, ie outside the performance component. he must really need a shed load of dollars if he selling shares, a lot more than the total of this sale