I agree with most of your analysis but it must be recognised...

I agree with most of your analysis but it must be recognised that the caravan and motorhome market is currently slow and margins have been reduced dramatically. They are overstocked and floor plan (or bailment) stock generally has to be moved within 3 mos or they must purchase it outright. As pointed out by ATL the Canadian market is now slow and margins are very slim on rental stock being sold off. In prior years this market was there best earner. The American market for motorhomes is also in poor shape. I do not want to talk their business down too much but holders must face the facts. Performance this year will suffer and there will be some writeoffs IMO. If writeoffs are high there will be little or no dividend. However you are right about inherent value. NTA is quoted at 38c and surely there is considerable goodwill in the rental business. Holders be patient - the caravan market will turn just as it has in the past. Dealers will destock and manufacturers will reduce building new vans just the same as they have done in the past - its just a case of when. For some there will be better places to park your money.