Good honest post, touches on some of the reasons I think 75c...

Good honest post, touches on some of the reasons I think 75c looked pretty toppy and deserves a sell sentiment. A Disallowed over 12 months, everyone made great money but at what point has the risk:reward no longer making sense? One of the greatest observations about junior explorers is the Lassonde Curve, otherwise known as the Life Cycle of a Junior Explorer.


Early investors, funds, brokers hold tight and pump the stock through all the exploration speculation where the more successful the higher the price rises. Nobody discusses risk or mining reality, happy to keep focussed how big and how much value this discovery is going to generate. Company takes the most optimistic view of everything because they ca, and because they need the price up to reduce dilution of the many CR's they need to fund 3 years of feasibility studies.

Feasibilities are usually all risk and no upside outside the commodity price rising strongly. Expensive and full of inconvenient realities of higher costs, longer permitting, more difficult financing etc, all while waiting to get hit by a market wide correction which smashes the share price even if the studies are going well. At the end of the Orphan period, share holders are inevitably heavily diluted with ultra cheap CR as part of a final funding deal (ie brokers and soph clients get set years later back near the bottom, ready to finally ride the project up into development and production). It's an ugly and demoralising period to hold nobody enjoys and few have the stomach for.

When to get out during the exciting speculative exploration phase is the question? IMO, savvy investors start leaving well before the obvious milestones of MRE's and Scoping Studies have been reached. Everyone has their eyes on these 'great news' pumps and the liquidity they bring to sell into. Perhaps the best time to start leaving is when the next round of drilling is unlikely to improve the project's expectations or value. Mineral sands is a pretty straightforward deposit model, and SVM's geology has few surprises left I suspect. Everyone expects infill drilling to match existing drilling by defining slightly smaller but higher grade areas. Everyone expects drilling on the rest of a large tenement holding will continue to deliver more of the same laterite profile rutile mineralisation.

With everyone expecting more of the same, and the MC now at $300M fully diluted, exactly who is left to get excited and buy at higher prices when the obvious drilling results continue while probably not changing the situation or valuation? The market knows there is a very large area that contains large tonnages of approx 1.2% Rt mining resources... soon it's all about feasibility studies and if the sausage matches the sizzle?

What I'm doing, whether you like it or not, is fact checking and examining what the likely cost base, risks and valuation is for this project. Obviously my first pass view is underwhelming vs $300M MC, time will tell what I uncover with the support of more facts. My sentiment does not mean I'm right or the price won;t keep rising, but I'm happy to nail my colours/reputation to the mast. If SVM falls away back to 10c over the next 3 years, nobody to going to thank me for raising a warning which is fine. If the price does fall back under 10c it won't be my fault either, only means the market was disappointed with the feasibility results and voted with their feet.

HC is a stock discussion sight but ultimately we're only here to make money and avoid losing money... something that's hard to do if only holders post and only bullish opinion is posted.

Good luck.