Ann: Change of Director's Interest Notice, page-26

I agree that the market is short sighted, and I agree that it doesn't make much sense, but it is what it is. The market ignoring the obvious is much like all the countless times people tell me they disagree with me about my short term predictions because they have long term predictions despite the many many many times I've pointed out when discussing my short term predictions that my long term predictions are completely separate and very different. It doesn't make sense, but people are what they are, they do what they do, you can't change it, but you can understand it and in the case of the stock market you can profit from it or avoid losses. I sold out at 26.5c because I was sure the price would drop. I was very open about intending to buy back in because despite being sure about a short term drop, my long term view was still bullish. I hoped to have the opportunity to buy back in the teens, but when the teens came up, more data was available and low teens seemed likely. By the time low teens came up, 10c seemed likely, and while 50c-$1 still seemed possible long term, short term didn't seem good and medium term seemed very likely to continue to have low prices. I did buy a few back earlier this year (low teens for memory) when it looked like we might finally see a reversal, but the quarterly results made it clear we'd go lower very soon and I immediately dropped them all in the high teens (predictably, everyone said I was insane and wrong etc).

As time goes on, the long term outlook for TNT has only looked worse (I know I'll be hated for saying that, but you have to be blind or dishonest with yourself not to see it, and I know I'll be hated even more for saying that), but I still see the possibility of TNT eventually getting back above 40-50c, possibly even well above. The reason I have no skin in TNT is that it's very risky now and there's no urgency to be holding, and there have been some absolutely obvious times to sell, the last time being when you could sell in the high teens and the price was obviously quickly going to test 12c and most likely 10c, without a realistic prospect of going higher in the short to medium term, so even with a long term view, why would you hold for about a 40% paper loss and at best fairly long term wait to recover it, especially when there are obvious opportunities elsewhere at the time?

Even ignoring those who are just irrationally bullish, people keep saying they disagree with me when I talk about the current situation and short term outlook, because they have an irrelevant (even if entirely correct and in other contexts very important) long term view.

To those who think they're clever for taking time to post about my posts being too long and a waste of their time, save yourself the ironic shame and pretend you scrolled past it or were watching the footy or reruns of Friends or something worthwhile.