If recession is the sole reason for the SP decline, this is the...

If recession is the sole reason for the SP decline, this is the right time to be buying into CTD. Recession will go away in a couple of years but the business will still be here. There is no better time to buy a quality business than when it's SP and performance is down due to external factors (that are temporary).
The more I think about it, the more I am convinced there is nothing dark at play here. This seems to be a sell off based on recession risks and ofcourse inflationary pressures along with poor airline performance. All of these will be away in the next 12 months. I am prepared for a very bad H1 but as long as they are profitable on a NPAT basis I am satisfied with my investment. If H1 is particularly bad the SP could go lower.

I must say part of the reason I sold out initially was because Jamie talks a big game but then comes up with excuses of why the targets weren't hit. I think CTD has done a good job of getting the revenue but profitability is low. This is why I wouldn't be surprised in the least if 1H doesn't hit NPAT of $24m.

The interesting question is, how low will the price go. I will definitely be keen for a top up around $12. Looking at the charts, there is a gap at $11.93 that hasn't been filled. From what I can see that is the last remaining gap on the downside for the last decade so it will be interesting to see if it gets filled.