Another way to look at this is that present holders will be...

Another way to look at this is that present holders will be getting 1.2c per share back soon, post the small shareholders clean up, which is essentially a very very small buy-back and admin saving.

At the 8.5c price now, you're effectively paying 7.3c for the Blackspur assets as it's a capital return, which is a rough market cap of $45m. Now the main question becomes, is Blackspur worth more than $45m? On a range of metrics it still looks like it is.

But with Montney gone, I don't have too much interest in this as a pure play producer. The big sell off on Friday plus comments on here shows that is not an uncommon view. I do think it has been oversold, but do I want oil exposure here vs the oil universe and the honest answer is probably no, which means the new marginal investor is either a deep value investor or one looking at a M&A play.

I will state that I think Blackspur will be sold within the next 1-6 months, particularly if oil can hold above US$80. If management are not lying and that it was based on EV/EBITDA multiples then that implies >100% upside. That now becomes the investment thesis plus hoping they can cashflow fund distributions with a leaner focused approach.

My biggest worry though is that it could mean management and the board doing themselves out of a job, which is aligned with shareholder interests but potentially not their own. Self interest is a key driver of behaviour. I do say potentially as Glenn has a few shares and it's probably a good way to exit as he can't really sell without killing the share price and sending the wrong signals vs his recent buy but I don't really have faith in management.