Hmm.. it's not really in my interests to once again have to go...

Hmm.. it's not really in my interests to once again have to go through this with you, since I am currently buying, and it is in my interests for the share price to go lower (into my buy orders).

However... since I have already gone through this in the past, (there is no hiding it), here it is:


Figure 1: back of the napkin analysis of the hypothetical 1x well scenario. =$10.6million/year. We have been through this before and using your numbers, ASX:MAY comes out to about $0.40+/share lol.. (see below post)

Chris Thompson: "there are numerous others that are fairly similar in quality, and that is suggesting to us that we are probably a WTI -5% say, approximately, but obviously we will be looking to get the best price possible for that crude in export..." source: Investor Stream Webinar Series: Melbana Energy (ASX:MAY) Investor Webinar Presentation (Dec 20 2023)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GlZmSIP5rz4

I should have made the operating costs AUD... but I think you get the point. Operating costs sourced from the below post: (71700579)

I have been buying and hopefully I will continue to buy after taking profits from ASX:HZR:


Andrew Purcell explained they are chasing up other rigs, and he said Sherritt previously were drilling in Cuba with 8x rigs. He said in the webinar that 8x rigs is what they want to get to. source:

https://youtu.be/MK-iERpXBWY?si=baTv_90Xm33JKX-D&t=3398 (time stamped to that exact point).

Furthermore...
If we take these calculations further with 2x wells (which we will have at the end of Alameda-3 [assuming mechanical lift for subunit 3]) then...:


Just for 2x wells in my opinion...

Ironically we are basically almost exactly where we would be if we just have 2x production wells only. So the company is currently priced at having 2x producing Heavy crude wells at the moment in my opinion.

However.. we all believe Alameda-3 won't be for Amistad, completions of Alameda-3 will likely be for Alameda or Marti in my opinion.

This above DCF with just 2x production wells ignores:
1) ["net assets = $52.99 MM] The book value of all the exploration permits: $18,850,629 etc etc (ASX:MAY, 27 Sep, 2023 Annual Report to Shareholders)
2) "Total available funding" (item 8.4 + item 8.5): $42.8 MM. (ASX:MAY, 23 Jan 2024, Quarterly Activities Summary Period Ended 31 December 2023)
3) Unused tax losses for which no deferred tax asset has been recognised: $187,220,307
4) All of the potential of the Alameda reservoir
5) All of the potential of the Marti reservoir
6) All future Amistad wells...

If we added the above 6 points of value to the share price, and discount back to today, it would be magnitudes higher than what it is now. I believe the share price will eventually get a wake up call. I believe a market cap of $1billion by ~ Nov2026 is entirely achievable. "Strategy focused to become $1b company within 3 years" = Monday, 16 November 2026. (source: 16 Nov 2023, ASX:MAY, AGM Presentation, https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02740805-3A630953

Lol... there is no denying this will be a whale.