BMEBME is just the Leichhardt seam and realized prices suggest...

BME
BME is just the Leichhardt seam and realized prices suggest semi-hard coking coal. Looks like the historical split semi hard/thermal has been 50/50ish - which is also assumed in the Independent Investment Research (IIR) write-up. The June quarterly mentioned an unexpectedly high share of thermal coal was mined that quarter ("large split seam top coal"). Sounds like they had to mine through a section of weathered coal to me?

Ellensfield South
Mines the Leichhardt and Vermont seams. A combination of these seams typically produce a 70%ish yield with a 60/40 split between HCC and thermal. See neighboring mines. The IIR assumes a blended volume mix for ES and BME of 56/46, so a 60/40 split for ES seems realistic given the 50/50 split at BME, with ES expected to produce more ROM than BME in due time.
Realized US$255/t is close to HCC (not Premium HCC), which is very good. Prices only ticked up in Sep and there is a lag of app. 3 mths for higher prices to be realized. The spread between HCC and Premium HCC has recently widened - not a lot of PHCC around. With regard to the WHC presentation for the Blackwater and Daunia acquisition: it comes down to the price deck used (which included lower spreads of SHCC and HCC to PHCC). Lastly, two coking vessels got pushed out from Dec into Jan and ES is still in ramp-up mode.

Summary
ES is a much better pit than BME, and ES is just starting to show up in the numbers. Mgmt has provided longer term guidance that production will cost A$135/t FOB of saleable product excluding royalties in real terms.

If put into a mini model (posted in another post a few days ago):

Stage 1 (module 1 only)
2.75mt ROM
40% HCC (US$270/t)
30% thermal 5500 (US$90/t)
US$90 cash cost/t
= US$130m EBITDA vs a market cap of US$120m (at A$0.067/share) and EV of US$185m
= BCB is trading at 1.0x near-term EBITDA and 1.4x near-term EV/EBITDA
= BCB is trading well below replacement cost (US250-300m-ish for the CHPP and camp alone)

Most analyst models (IIR, Shaw), assume falling prices. However, given the growing structural demand-supply imbalances - shouldn't one assume higher prices going forward?