You bring up valid points and I appreciate your perspective here. If I may offer a contrarian perspective to your points and why I am not dismayed by the concerns you brought up.
1. Future energy price. I am of the mindset that energy prices might become depressed in the short term for a litany of reasons, but ultimately, given the global demand constraint and the lack of investment into production of any sort, we just do not have enough oil to meet even the lowest of demand projections. Certainly, if the world falls into a massive global depression that we saw a century ago, anything can happen. But in that scenario, we are all screwed anyway and I hope you have some physical gold lying around. In the likely scenario where there is additional armed conflict, energy prices goes higher from here as well. The world is just not in the same situation where energy fell last time due to overproduction. No one is overproducing and global reserves by country are some of the lowest we've seen.
2. Performance against peers. I agree, we've sucked. But this is also an opportunity. If you believe that oil prices will remain elevated for the foreseeable future, then Calima's near term underperformance gives us a chance to be invested in the oil and future gas business at a better relative entry point than any other company, even factoring in the recent drop. This is why I keep stressing patience. I have to do it to myself every day I am invested here.
3. Montney. Unlike Bersek, I don't view Montney as just a saving grace. You can't just take Montney out of the valuation equation when LNG is what will keep the world powered until we solve our longer term issues around energy and the impact on environment. One of the reasons the US might finally pass a groundbreaking new bill centered around future green energy needs is tied partially to getting more LNG to market via new completed pipelines. I am not in a rush to monetize Montney, as we can rely on cash from oil to keep the company running until then. But, if you believe that current management will not be in a position do so, yeah, then Calima definitely isn't worth the risk/reward. However, and no offense to management, I think given the world's current needs for LNG and the fact there is an approved pipeline plan to get Montney's LNG to market, I could probably make money selling Montney. This is a matter of when, and management has been clear they not squander the opportunity to maximize shareholder value.
What the market sees. If I invested based on just what the market sees, I would not be in a position to outperform the market. I am a contrarian investor and I invest primarily against what the market sees. That is why my risk/reward perspective of Calima is different than most. While the market sees management being unreliable, I see a management team aligned with a vision of getting as much oil out of the ground in the current term. For now, I am writing up production misses due to being unlucky, as we've encounter weather and other issues. However, I am keeping a close eye on results over the next two quarters. We can't be unlucky forever. If we miss more production estimates, I will likely no longer have my sentiment as buy and will just be holding.
I know many here are still upset over the "surprise" cap raise at .20. But in hindsight, I would much rather that cap raise at .20 to pay off our debt facilities than at the .13 we are now.
For all you current holders, hang in there. I admit, we may continue to go lower from here based on sentiment, but there becomes a point where it's just silly. When that happens, I hope some of you that have exited take the chance to get back in. Everyone says to not be emotional when you are investing, but it's really really hard. But in order to make real money, we must try and just be patient.
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