I've never beenInterested to hear the views of others, however I think you're missing a couple of aspects, one on sentiment and one on tax. I've never been a glass half full kind of person, but having held SDG since '06, other than for the 'doing business in Dubai' issues of years ago, they have perennially been an under-forecaster, and been a conservative expectations manager. My instinct is that there is greater upside than downside to their current projections.....eg. very unlikely the material defects provision will be under provided for... The other aspect to bring into the marginal analysis is the capital loss. I'm not a tax accountant, but this is my view. Regardless of whether it's from the lens of a non-holder : "do I buy now for ~$1.06, effectively cum 11c ff div", of from a current holder lens of "do I sell now, effectively cum div", either way, at, say, ~$1.06 sp there is a capital loss to be incurred, which has value. This is particularly so for the buyer's lens. All else being equal, if I buy at, say, 1.06, to a taxpayer in the top marginal rate there's a 16c loss to be had, which turns out to either a ~7.5c tax 'value' (at 47% tax) to be offset against other gains, or nudging 4c, depending on the intricacies of the 50% CG reduction if held longer than 12 months. And remembering this is after-tax real capital value. So, personally, I'm remaining to be a holder, probably up to about $1.08-ish, before I'd decide to pay brokerage and bail.....
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