I think a lot of questions are coming up reflecting purely on the share price than the caliber or effort by management team. It was only last year that the same crowd was overjoyed by the sheer talent of the management team and the board they have been able to put together.
The maths for me is still quite simple:
- They have managed to build a revenue base of over $30m and large part of it is recurring due to the replenishable nature of their product they sale. I would class them as close to being an ARR for a software business. The gross margin is pretty good but a large opex cost has been towards setting up a dedicated field sales team in various jurisdictions some of which has not returned the level of revenue growth they had expected
- They have clearly pointed out that they are arresting the bottom line in excess of $6m reduction next year and with any volume growth on the base above will get them very close to breakeven
- With an Enterprise value of $52m net of cash, you are basically getting the company with $30m ARR at 1.6x. I would take that any day of the week let alone for the company growing topline at over 30%
- In 6 months, if they have landed the partner for US and are cashflow positive by next year, what is the multiple you are happy to pay this at? Surely not 1.6?
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