CHL (ASX) Ann: CHL H1FY24 Interim Results and Presentation

Originally posted by ajshakey ↑

The focus/concern after today for me from here is on whether their largest market Australia can continue to grow it's GTV at solid rates - or has it already hit maturity.

But in terms of this Cost vs Revenue discussion, I'd be careful comparing the expenses of H1 2023FY versus this H1 2024FY and making a call on the Cost vs Revenue relationship.

Expenses
H1 2023FY only included 1 month of PaulCamper operating expenses (December 2022 only).
H1 2024FY includes a full 6 months of PaulCamper operating expenses.

Despite this:
- Marketing costs as a % of revenue only went from 13% to 14% of revenue (H1 22FY vs H1 23FY)
- Employee benefits as a % of revenue dropped from 38% to 35% of revenue (H1 22FY vs H1 23FY)

In absolute terms, if H1 2024FY operating expenses werent materially higher versus H1 2023FY then I would have been perplexed.

RevenueJust as important is the timing of Revenue for CHL.
Q1 and Q2 (or H1) are always their worst revenue quarters.
So we have an artificially high comparison of Expenses (H1 23FY vs H1 24FY) and then we layer this on top the 2 lowest Revenue quarters for CHL to declare the Cost/Revenue relationship broken?

CHL have stated on a conference call in 2023 that the strength in their quarters runs like this:
Q1 - Jul to Sept = Weakest quarter
Q2 - Oct to Dec = 2nd Weakest quarter
Q3 - Jan to Mar = Strongest quarter
Q4 - Apr to Jun = 2nd Strongest quarter

In Australia and NZ most of the bookings made are completed during our Summer break (post Xmas and New Year) and during Easter holidays.
For Europe (incl PaulCamper) - bookings ramp up during Feb, March, April onwards and then start falling away in late July.

And remembering....
- Revenue recognition for original Camplify countries (Aust, NZ, UK, Spain) occurs when booking takes place.
- Revenue recognition for PaulCamper occurs when booking made.
PaulCamper and H2 2024FY Revenue
I dont expect much if any growth in the Booking Volume or GTV for PaulCamper during H2.

But take rate growth is a different story. It currently sits at 18.2% and I can foresee this growing towards 22-23% for H2 2024 and then as we roll around to H2 2025FY I can see this climbing further.

This on it's own boosts PaulCamper's revenue by 25% without any growth in their Bookings or GTV.
If they get the growth in Booking Volumes/GTv as well (by the way I'm not holding my breath for in H2 2024FY) then it's a double jump in revenue for PaulCamper.

Can it be done?
It's been done before in Australia when they introduced the Accident and Excess Reduction (AER) on each booking during early 2023.
It boosted the take rate immediately on each booking.

Go onto PaulCamper now and make a booking and you will now note that they have already introduced PaulCampers version of AER.
Its only a very recent addition.

Myway (and the MGA)I still think one of the best things to come from this PaulCamper acquisition was this MGA and now Myway.
This has the ability to add to the take rate across all geographies.

They were able to confirm today that they are still on track to have all of the new Myway insurance product offerings completed for Northern Hemisphere by the end of 2024FY and by Q1 2025FY for Australian and NZ (ready for our peak season during late 2024 and early 2025).
It's the ability to further 'clip the ticket' on both sides of the transaction with customised insurance products.

In addition to this they've now got the ability to create insurance products (I would assume that are travel and RV related) for non- Camplify customers.
It becomes an extra Revenue line item that hasnt even registered yet on the P&L.

Share price from here is likely to drift lower on no news and maybe if inflation in the US stays a bit higher than expected over the coming months, we could see the small/micro caps take another pounding on this bumpy inflation ride.

I'm looking forward to CHL's Full Year reporting in August to see what H2 2024 achieves.

Expand

thankyou for putting it in perspective- I think you answered my question (!) of "we did not have the full story, especially with Paul campers "- it seems it was early Dec purchase (or the start i guess) , and yes it was their quiet time, and they have already integrated insurance products, so some of the technological integrations has been done-and they are likely to increase the take rate

but although it is the quiet time for Paul campers, you are pessimistic about growth in booking volume ( i did note that revenue is recognised at booking time); but surely there is time post Dec for some good figures perhaps?

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