re: Ann: Chorbane Permit Extension and Drilli... Onceover.IMHO...

re: Ann: Chorbane Permit Extension and Drilli... Onceover.

IMHO the Tunisian military controls everything ... including the current provision of a greater degree of personal freedom than under Ben Ali government.

Geopolitically, Eygpt is on thinner ice IMO than Tunisia, due to demographics and the inability of any Government of any description to find away forward for a large majority of disaffected urban poor.

My guess is that Tunisia will actually get to where it wants to go and that the military will support whoever wins the upcoming election .... which is in any case be of a consititutional change committee. The people who don't like what's going on are a majority of extreme Islamists ... who sit outside the mainstream //middle of the road Islamist Party (Ennahdhaand) and crazy anarchist socialists who are quite capable of stiring up trouble at any demo (as they do in Australia).

OK ... I'm not particularly time sensitive AND I haven't bet my house on this play. In my uninformed opinion my guess is that the JV is targeting less O&G but with a higher probability of success than 30%. On this level all anyone can do is pick a numbers// any numbers and wait for the result. I, like Good Oil would be quite happy to wait until after the election if that strategy mitigated risk.

On the issue of disclosures to the market, be absolutely sure that local Sidi Dhaher interests read the anns AND these threads.

cheers