I think sodium will account for a significant, but ultimately...

I think sodium will account for a significant, but ultimately minor share of the total battery capacity in the years to come. City cars are popular in Europe to drive the kids around and do grocery raids but most consumers also like the option to drive a bit more once in a while and not many Europeans keep a second car. Those who do will also most likely opt to own two EVs eventually given the approaching price parity with ICE alternatives, lower TCO, better tech packs, and environmental concerns. After all, a semi-solid or solid pack can give you 700-800km range in a mid sized SUV - that's more than enough for a trip to Lake Como or to ski.

Stationary storage will probably be lost to the lithium market though, so home photovoltaic and such will most likely go that way initially. However I read somewhere that the raw material difference is only roughly 20% of the cost in favour of sodium; as solid state matures and capacities ramp up, there might be price parity there on a KWh basis, with superior solid state lifetime - I would think a swing back for home stationary should follow that, going for larger capacities, etc.

I think it's sort of like reading bones at this point.