Some thoughts based on what I've heard from uni lecturers
Ports in China are swamped. Cargo can't leave so we will see an oversupply of stocks. This will push prices lower (eventually).Retailers can't keep prices inflated otherwise they will run of retail consumers, distributors will take a hit and trickling down to manufacturers. So price must go down (eventually). IF there is an oversupply you'd expect industrial reits to at least maintain rent but we might not see growth in the short term as renters might not afford to pay.
Further, I have seen the port in Melbourne doing massive renovations so I'm guessing they're preparing for massive shipments coming in.
So the distribution centres imo will do well but we might see manufacturing suffer a bit.
A few lenders are commenting similar scenarios for overseas supplies of building materials. But the issue I'm thinking is the materials might be needed and go towards russia/ ukraine post war. This might keep prices high in the short-medium term as we are see energy prices rise.
I think we'll see another 5-10% drop in the market overall before stabilizing. Consumers reducing spend but I think this is already priced in with a 4-5% inflation rate being announced. Overall Australia needs these warehouses since we're so isolated from the world and bulk buying distribution centre is a must.
That said I have moved to Stake for free trades, and have just been DCAing small amounts every 1-2 months and DRP to de-risk in case i'm wrong.
CIP Price at posting:
$3.41 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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