Cheers Andy and Pear. Agree with both of your points. Andy...

Cheers Andy and Pear. Agree with both of your points. Andy agreed I think the aha moment for a lot of people will be when they see that cash balance not increase at a rate which aligns with the story and that isn't increasing at a rate anywhere near being able to repay debt. We may even see another net asset decrease throughout FY16 (would put a greater than 50% chance of this occurring), if that occurs it will be panic stations as there will be less than 3 years remaining to generate $4.8 Bn USD in free cash flow.

Pear I think you're probably right but I haven't done the analysis apart from high level. Net assets declined for FY15 which tells me that they weren't making money at FY15 prices. Current prices are lower, and while they have reduced costs, I doubt it is enough to turn a decent profit (maybe a marginal one).