The break even includes all cash costs, freight costs, moisture...

The break even includes all cash costs, freight costs, moisture allowances and grade discount. Its $39/t as reported, but wold have

Depreciation is not necessary to deduct, you should work on EBITDA rather than reported profit.

Where do you think the Depreciation goes??? It isn't a cash cost, it isn't paid out. In fact it reduces tax liability.

Assets are depreciated at a far higher rate than them becoming obsolescent. There will be maintenance and sustaining cap ex, but in 7 years they won't need to build a new rail or plant. That's absurd, look at how old rio and bhp infrastrucutre is.

At the moment there is a substantial question mark (and rightfully so) over the IO price and where it is going. It holds, FMG are out of the woods in 12-18 months and will be in a position to refinance as debt-equity ratio is more sustainable. It drops, so too will the FMG sp. It goes up, shorters will all do their dough.

If you can predict where IO is going, you're wasting your time on HC. Analysts can't guess it, no one can. The Chinese infrastructure spend is the canary in the coal mine.

But it is worth noting that every day it remains over$50, FMG make over $5 m.