Mostly agree, however I don't know the cross subsidy of...

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Germantheologist

695 Posts.

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26/10/21

12:39

Post #: 57077679
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Originally posted by bottomfeeder1: ↑

Yes there is $64m in cash = $0.16/share. You then have a business generating $4.1m in EBITDA. There is always a buyer for such businesses and maybe they may get a 5Xmultiple so its worth say $20m or $0.05/share. Then you have the wind down of some projects that will release further cash. This is anyone's guess so anywhere from $0.01 to say $0.05/share.

This is not investment grade and is worthless staying on the boards. It needs to be taken private or wound up. hence why I believe it will crystalise in the not to distant future. I am also betting that sharks or even Crescent will know that a lot of investors will sell out once the payment in made, so the SP will drop and they can get it on the cheap.

You just need to see where the SP is trading at the moment and realise once the payment is made their will be a lot of shareholders heading for the door so the SP will come under pressure.

Payout from $1.40 to $1.49
Scraps remaining $0.22 to $0.26

Therefore SP should be trading around $1.62 to $1.71

One thing that is opaque in this whole calculation is what cash is actually left in CDD. The business is being bought on a cash free debt free basis. That meaning that any cash held at the time of completion remains with CDD and and bebt is paid out by CDD.

We know that CDD wash debt free and carried circa $15m in cash at end June. Post that a dividend of $15m was paid out. that would mean cash is $0. However between June and mid December the business will generate say $25m in EBITDA, it pays little tax so one can only assume that CDD will be sitting on circa $20m in cash at least. That's a further $0.05/share . I could be wrong but I assume the underlying business is not changing over the next few months.

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Mostly agree, however I don't know the cross subsidy of overheads from CDD to the development business, were they paying full OH costs?

I'd bet they would have to do a lot of work to rationalize their cost structure.

CDD Price at posting: $1.52 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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Mostly agree, however I don't know the cross subsidy of...

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