SMN 2.63% 58.5¢ structural monitoring systems plc

Ann: CLARIFICATION TO ANNOUNCEMENT, page-33

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  1. 1,169 Posts.
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    Let's not forget new planes, which I feel are bound to include CVM sensors in the not too distant future...

    "Airbus says it will crank out 60 planes a month by 2019. Boeing plans to build 47 planes each month next year and ramp up to 57 in 2019."
    From: https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.wired.com/2016/09/boeing-builds-737-just-nine-days/amp

    So...

    By 2019, we are looking at a combined 117 planes per month.

    Now while @OptiontraderMGR is using $140k per plane above, I will use a more conservative $50k per plane (I believe sensor revenue was indicated to be between $20k and $70k per plane by management, given how much we are estimating sensors are worth now I suspect this is fairly conservative so have gone a bit higher than the mid point).

    So 117 planes by $50k gives $5.85M.. Per month, 70.2M per year.

    Given that we have been told these sensors are very high margin I am working on 80%. So after expenses and taxes are removed I get around $39M profit. With 112M shares on issue that is approx $0.348 per share and at a conservative PE of 15 for a rapidly growing stock like SMN will be we have a SP of $5.22.

    Just for new planes
    Not counting fit out of existing planes (my figures are a bit different to Optiontrader's)
    And not counting the massive licensing fee!

    This stock will be worth multiples of $5.22 in the not too distant future IMHO.

    DYOR.
 
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