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Ann: Clarifications on suspension and AFR articles, page-101

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cruiser51

6,912 Posts.

1934

12/02/23

12:29

Post #: 66201541
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Originally posted by Dom74 ↑

I reckon we will end up doing a deal with the Chinese.

After 9 months, even the expertise of Marius and his relationship with FT can't get this over the line. Mgt may be having one last crack at it with FT after the latest decrees. I'm guessing FT wasn't even aware of them as he was boasting an SEZ at Manono at Indaba. How do you have an SEZ with lead partner AVZ when that very partner had their decree revoked? Even the MoM may have cracked under Chinese pressure.

What the final structure will be depends on negotiations. This is my opinion on worst case scenario. Even with IGF report, with Chinese influence DRC Govt may accept $150m for Cominiere 15%. Cong won't accept he has lost his 15% for $20m and will want more money. I reckon he will give it to Zijin to increase Chinese percentage. AVZ can throw money at Cong to try and get it, but I'm thinking former scenario will prevail. That leaves it at 51/9/30/10 assuming CATH are happy to take 9%. Nigel did say they are happy to take a smaller percentage.

Some here may disagree and these are just my thoughts on what could potentially happen and is worst case scenario. I hope FT tells the Chinese to FO and it's 81/9/10.

However, unless FT intervenes very soon, negotiations will need to take place as MoM has told all parties to work out their differences and do it quickly. This means relying on the ICC cases is out the window.

If DRC wanted to boot AVZ out (unlikely scenario) they would have done it by now, but they are wanting AVZ to open discussions to end all conflicts.

At this point and after nine months of stress, I'd be happy with 51% in the world's largest lithium mine than 0%. If Nigel continues to stand his ground, that may happen, so hope the Board will reassess their current strategy.

Also need to keep in mind that if Chinese enter Dathcom, all potential future impediments will disappear, even with a potential change in Govt at the next elections.

Best of luck to all SHs.

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It is pretty clear MoM and FT do not want the case to progress in ICC for the whole world to see their corrupt system, while saying come over to the DRC and do business here.

Their 'we are open for business' really means come to the DRC and gives us more paper bags filled with US dollas and we deal with you.

AVZ Price at posting: 78.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
14 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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