Its just so predictable when Bell Potter is involved. You can...

Its just so predictable when Bell Potter is involved. You can set your watch by it.

- Allocate shares to instos before retail
- Get instos to promise to hold off taking the stag profit until the retail SPP closes to ensure SP stays above SPP price
- instos take stag profit as soon as SPP closes.

The bit that's still to play out is Bell's sell down of the shares it picks up through its underwriting role. Those will be sold in first two weeks of May.

So, there's still an opportunity to sell at this level and buy back when Bell unloads? It depends. All things being equal, the Bell sell down will push the SP below the SPP price. But if CU6 makes a juicy announcement prior to then, a person looking for the swing trade may be left stranded ...

There are things you can do to avoid this scenario, but of course you can't use Bell if you plan on either:

1. Allocate all the new shares (new institutions + existing institutions + retail) at the same time. You won't be able to attract those institutions that only want a stag profit - but why do you want such "investors" on your register in the first place? All they represent is a transfer of wealth from long-term, loyal shareholders to flippers. If everyone gets their shares at the same time, you know you will be getting institutions that believe in the company and intend holding for at least the mid-term.

2. Always allow existing shareholders to take up shares not subscribed for by other existing shareholders. That way you minimise the number of underwriter shares that will be dumped on the market. Again, can't use Bell Potter for such an arrangement.