CU6 clarity pharmaceuticals ltd

5.44%

$2.52

My view has not changed with recent sell off and decline in...

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GreatMinds

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103

05/02/25

12:26

Post #: 77714229
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Originally posted by UpsideDownUnder ↑

Yes but at what price?
Bell Potter Val from July 24
VALUATIONThe $121m capital raise @ $2.55 in March 2024 was multiple times over-subscribed. Applying US$250,000 (being the market price for a course of Pluvicto) per patient to the US market for men with BCR alone (i.e. ~110,000 patients at any given time) results in a TAM potentially valued in billions of US$ (i.e. comfortably exceeding US$5bn in annual revenues). We apply a conservative discount for clinical trial risk and assume conservative estimates for both market share and pricing across both therapy and imaging revenue models.First revenues from imaging are scheduled for FY27 and therapy in FY29. The model also assumes large increases for R&D activity and operating expenses in a theoretical model of a direct go to market strategy. Based on these assumptions and a WACC of 18% to the DCF yields a target price of $10.00.Based on recent transactions in the space (most notably the Novartis acquisition of Mariana, the AZ acquisition of Fusion and the BMS acquisition of Rayzbio) and in view of the relatively late stage of development for CU6’s portfolio and its superior IP position, our reasonable estimate of Enterprise value in a trade sale is ~US$3bn today (EV A$4.7bn after adjusting for cash) i.e. $15/sh.Being a biotechnology stock carrying significant biotechnology risk, our valuation is limited to 100% upside from the current market price. Revised valuation is $10.00/share and we retain our Buy (Speculative) rating.

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My view has not changed with recent sell off and decline in price. Thats the way the market works. The price could rally as fast as it has declined, so the mentioned valuation still stands. $15 dollars would not be expensive for this wonderful company

CU6 Price at posting: $3.76 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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(20min delay)
Last $2.52		Change 0.130(5.44%)		Mkt cap ! $810.1M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
$2.39	$2.54	$2.37	$5.141M	2.072M

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	6820	$2.50

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
$2.52	3500	1

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
2	6820	2.500
1	6415	2.490
2	26415	2.480
2	7915	2.470
4	41204	2.450

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.520	3500	1
2.530	1000	1
2.540	41066	4
2.550	30570	7
2.560	6415	1

Last trade - 16.17pm 27/06/2025 (20 minute delay)

CU6 (ASX) Chart

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My view has not changed with recent sell off and decline in...

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Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

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