Ann: Class - 30 June 2019 Update, page-4

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nicarena

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04/07/19

16:19

Post #: 39375702
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Originally posted by SimonGr: ↑

IMO this is the best qrtly result since Jun18. As some may recall, I process this info in a different way than CL1 presents it. Below is my updated chart of gross new accounts split by type (exclude the losses to AMP to get back to net).

Some random comments:
Net accounts gained is the best result for a year (despite the election and the negative sentiment for SMSF before the election due to Shorten's policies).
However, gross new accounts were slightly lower than previous qrt (low AMP losses driving the higher net result)
AMP losses being low could be many things:
Delayed changes as SMSF trustees wanted to see who won the election before making a move, or ..
AMP's own troubles causing lower transfers? or ...
Other?? I would have appreciated some commentary from CL1 on this.
AMP accounts now appear to be ~5,400
The accounts per customer looks pleasing (proxy for revenue). To compare this over time I ignore AMP (1 customer/5400 accounts skews numbers and hides underlying result). With AMP excluded, I get:
114 Super accounts per customer in Jun17, dropping slightly to 108 in Jun19, but ...
117 Total accounts (Super + portfolio) dropping to just 113 in Jun19
CL1 is chasing smaller firms with less accounts per firm ... but the change isn't as bad as I thought ("no. new accounts/no. new firms" averaged 81/firm since Jun17). Note, this isn't a perfect calc as it assumes no increase/decrease for the firms on books at Jun17 - but not a bad proxy. Note, mirroring this calc for total accounts isn't valid tho IMO as most portfolio accounts are with existing firms.

Can any accountants give insight into how the industry as a whole has been effected in the last qrt? And expectations for next half?

Comments? Insights?

I haven't updated by earnings model yet - but if anything, this update will increase my personal expectations.

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thanks SimonGr. Great informative and analytical post. This is what makes HotCopper good not the ramblings of lots of other posters (see Afterpay forum). Agreed this looks better plus the announcement that they will move into other areas. I think this is undervalued and will slowly move up over the next few months.
CL1 Price at posting: $1.51 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
3 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Ann: Class - 30 June 2019 Update, page-4

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